D H
May 19 · Last update 6 mo. ago.

When should countries end their pandemic lockdown?

Nationwide lockdowns or shelter in place notices have been a common measure put in place internationally to curb the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in an effort to contain the virus, slowing the rate of spread with the aim of not overwhelming healthcare services. Many countries advised citizens to work from home where possible, closed none essential businesses and recommended people only leave home to buy groceries, in addition to other measures to encourage social distancing by minimising social contact. However this approach has had a considerable economic cost and numerous countries are already seeking to end these measures. As fears are still high moves to return to normal have been controversial with public health officials worried about a second spike of infections, and others doubting the severity of the virus and arguing the economic and social impacts of a lockdown will be more deadly than COVID-19. With this in mind when is the best time for leaving lockdown or ending shelter in place? When should countries end their pandemic lockdown?
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As soon as possible
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Countries should not impose lockdowns
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When “R” falls beneath one
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As cautiously as possible
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0 disagrees
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As soon as possible

As the pandemic drags on it is becoming increasingly clear that the economic cost will be greater than the human cost of the coronavirus, and lockdowns and social distancing measures will only kick the can further down the road for both the virus and the economy. While lockdown measures would be the perfect scenario to curb a small outbreak, the global pandemic is now running rampant, and with this in mind countries need to change tactics to address the bigger long-term issues, freeing the healthy while shielding the vulnerable. America is especially economically vulnerable, the US economy lack the “breaks” or “airbags” of fiscal or social policy to survive a crash, so when the economy stops the damage is much greater than countries like Germany that protect jobs and have a healthcare system. Countries should be balancing the number of carers, hospital beds, and resources available such as PPE, to keep hospitals and care homes running to keep people alive, but the rest society should be free to focus on economic recovery.

rt.com/op-ed/488715-boris-johnson-covid-action foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2020-03-30/us-economy-uniquely-vulnerable-coronavirus mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3901936-Is-it-time-to-Free-the-healthy-and-shield-the-vulnerable hangthebankers.com/economic-collapse-is-inevitable-heres-why

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D H
Jul 7
Created

Countries should not impose lockdowns

The whole issue is an over reaction, imposing a full societal lockdown, when the virus affects targeted few and the overall survival rate for the majority is quite high (fatality rate: 0.1-0.2% according to Stamford University), is illogical, wasteful, damaging to the economy and dangerous for public health in the long run. Governments should shield the most vulnerable while allowing healthy people to naturally build immunity and continue businesses and society as normal, if we continue lockdowns experts are predicting dozens of famines as even the US is currently facing food shortages. By making everyone lockdown the pandemic is going to become a slow motion disaster, where the economy is damaged for the long haul, leading to an enormous amount of death and suffering in the long term. In this way the lockdown was most probably more dangerous than the virus itself.

townhall.com/columnists/dennisprager/2020/05/05/the-worldwide-lockdown-may-be-the-greatest-mistake-in-history-n2568180 telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/30/five-facts-suggest-lockdown-mistake thecritic.co.uk/the-lockdowns-founding-myth

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D H
Jul 7
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When “R” falls beneath one

Epidemiologists measure a disease’s rate of spread using the “basic reproduction number” (or “R”) which is measured by mathematical models to convey the expected number of cases of a disease that will be generated by one case in a population. This is popularly understood as the vulnerability of a society to a disease. If a societies R is more than one it demonstrates the disease will move through the society relatively quickly, with an R of 1.2 meaning 100 people will infect 120, and similarly an R of less than one generally represent a slowing in the spread of the virus. For this reason country’s such as the UK are integrating the R number into their calculations on when to end or reduce the severity of their lockdown, with an R of less than one indicating a decrease in the rate of spread, societies can begin or end lockdown and social isolation with this as a scientific guideline.

wired.co.uk/article/uk-lockdown wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-r-number-uk npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/15/834021103/who-sets-6-conditions-for-ending-a-coronavirus-lockdown

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D H
Jun 20
Created

As cautiously as possible

When easing lockdown measures countries need to move as slowly as possible, we are still in the middle of a global pandemic and you cannot put a price on human life. For example, during a dispute over the UK Government’s guidelines for reopening state schools on June the first, the British Medical Association sided with various teachers unions, saying the government guidelines were “too fast, too confusing and too risky” [1]. This was prompted by a muddled speech from Prime Minister Boris Johnson on May 10th in which he gave conflicting information and laid out a patchy plan to ease the UK’s lockdown, the speech was followed by massive overcrowding on London’s public transport just the next day. This all comes at a time when a number of children have died from a unknown Kawasaki-like disease that seems to be an emergent trend linked with COVID-19, there are still clearly many unknowns, and while it is different for every country, societies should be moving slowly and acting cautiously.

[1] sports.yahoo.com/coronavirus-reopening-schools-confusing-teachers-unions-172100277.html bbc.com/news/education-52650259 theguardian.com/world/2020/may/16/french-boy-dies-from-coronavirus-linked-kawasaki-diseae inews.co.uk/opinion/columnists/boris-johnsons-muddled-coronavirus-message-is-no-accident-it-is-about-economy-2853809

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D H
May 19
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